Criminality registration and measurement. The problem of missing data, and the use of science to produce estimations relating to homicide in Colombia, as demonstrated with an example from one of its administrative and political divisions: the Depa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47741/17943108.122Keywords:
criminality measuring, crime tendencies, statistics, quantitative data concerning crime, homicideAbstract
The integrity of the public policy cycle depends upon the quality of information available to make decisions in any of the relevant phases. In a disturbing manner, this cycle -and particularly in the field of criminal policy- diverges from the technical analysis that should be based on empiric proof and theoretical justification and support. This article retakes classical -though forgotten- axes of criminality measurement, for the purpose of stressing the essential function of reliable data in the public policy cycle. It offers an analysis of the registration and measurement process, and highlights both problems and limits involved in any crime registration exercise. It points out the need to examine the universe of what has been ignored in the diverse registration projects, and explains the tools used to account for the missing data. In order to illustrate the potential involved in the application of these tools in Colombia, it exemplifies the results found in the integrated homicide record keeper in one of the Colombian 32 administrative and political divisions: the Department of Antioquia, in the 2003-2011 period, pursuant to five registration projects (including that of the National Police); and it offers a probabilistic estimation of homicides incorporating the calculation of missing data, according to a technique known as the Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE).
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