The analytical difficulty of the time lag in reporting and its relevance for the analysis of crime indicators in Colombia (2005-2018)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to visualize and quantify the analytic difficulty that arises in interpreting crime indicators due to the time lag between the time when the crime took place and the date on which the crime report was filed² . This time lag creates a lenient bias in crime measurement and interpretation for decision-making effects when time periods are compared (previous periods against the current period). The methodology used is exploratory with a quantitative approach in the treatment of data recorded from 2005 to 2018, and consolidated in the Oral Criminal Prosecution System (SPOA, for the Spanish original) of the National Prosecutor’s Office (Fiscalía) and in the Crime, Infraction and Operations Statistical System (SIEDCO, for the Spanish original) of the National Police of Colombia. Data on the crimes of homicide, theft, personal injuries, intra-family violence and sexual crimes during the first four and five months of each annual period were compared to the data from the subsequent months of the year. As a result, it was found that the average time lag was 2.85% for homicides; 11.8% for theft; 12.7% for personal injuries; 18.9% for intra-family violence and 30.5% for sexual crimes.