Geographical factors influencing the concentration of motorcycle theft episodes at ten police stations in the Department of Valle del Cauca between years 2010 and 2015

Abstract

The study of crime has incorporated special analysis as a relevant cause and, in this case, it helped determine how geographical factors had an inluence in the concentration of motorcycles theft in the Colombian Department of Valle del Cauca. To meet this target, a mixed methodology having triangulated special econometrics techniques with the focal group was adopted. The irst one examined 25 variables grouped into ive thematic subjects that, through the use of panel data and statistical methods for the selection of variables, the Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) to estimate causation relations of seven representative variables with the motorcycle theft; the second one was applied to two work groups held in Cali and Popayan, and it was possible to establish the criminal system and identify the destination and inal use given to the vehicles. The results showed that the behavior of crime here is of a regional nature involving this Department and Cauca; the distribution is non-random but dependent on the vicinity of the municipalities and the connecting highway network. This evidences that the strategies implemented to counteract them did not manage to detect the phenomenon expansion and adaptation to that context.