O registro e a medição da criminalidade. O problema dos dados faltantes e o uso da ciência para produzir estimativas com relação ao homicídio na Colômbia, demonstrado a partir de um exemplo: o departamento de Antioquia (2003-2011)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47741/17943108.122Palavras-chave:
medição da criminalidade, tendências do crime, estadísticas, dados quantitativos referidos à delinquência, homicídioResumo
A integridade do ciclo de políticas públicas depende da qualidade da informação disponível para fazer decisões em qualquer uma das fases. De maneira preocupante, este ciclo - especialmente no campo da política criminal - afasta-se da análise técnica, que teria que ser baseada no teste empírico e no apoio teórico. Este artigo retoma eixos clássico (mas esquecidos) da medição da criminalidade, a fim de enfatizar a função essencial de dados fiáveis no ciclo de políticas públicas. Oferece uma análise do processo do registo e medição do crime, e destaca os problemas e os limites de todo o exercício do registo criminal. Resalta a necessidade para examinar o universo do desconhecido pelos diversos projetos de registo, e explica as ferramentas que são usadas para apresentar os dados faltantes. A fim de ilustrar o potencial da aplicação destas ferramentas na Colômbia, ilustra os resultados do registro integrado dos homicídios no departamento de Antioquia, no período 2003-2011, de acordo com cinco projetos de registro (incluindo aquele da Polícias Nacional), e apresenta uma estimativa probabilística dos homicídios, que incorpora o cálculo dos dados faltantes de acordo com uma técnica chamada estimativa por múltiplos sistemas.
Downloads
Referências
Allison, P. (2002). Missing data. Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage.
Amstrup, S. C., McDonald, T. L. & Manly, B. F. (2005). Handbook of Capture-Recapture Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Anagnostopoulos, I., Stavropoulos, P. & Anagnostopoulos, C. (2011). "On the feasibility of applying capture recapture experiments for web evolution estimations." Working Paper from University of the Aegean, Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering. Disponible en: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ioannis_Anagnostopoulos/publication/233992028_janag_submission/links/02bfe50ddb41b7dbb0000000.pdf.
Arrest Related Deaths (2003-2009) [base de datos en Internet]. Washington, DC (USA): Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Disponible en: http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=82.
Ball, P., Betts, W., Scheuren, F., Dudukovic, J. & Asher, J. (2002). Killings and Refugee Flow in Kosovo, March-June 1999. Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Ball, P., Asher, J., Sulmont, D. & Manrique, D. (2003). How Many Peruvians Have Died? Report published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science for the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
Banks, D., Blanton, C., Couzens, L. & Cribb, D. (2015). Arrest-Related Deaths Program Assessment: Technical Report. RTI International, NCJ 248543. Disponible en: http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=5259.
Biderman, A. D. & Reiss, A. J. (1967). "On exploring the 'dark figure' of crime". Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 374: 1-15.
Biderman, A. D. & Lynch, J. P. (1991). Understanding crime incidence statistics: Why the UCR diverges from the NCS. New York: Springer- Verlag.
Brunborg, H., Lynstad, T. H. & Urdal, H. (2003). "Accounting for Genocide: How Many Were Killed in Srebrenica?" European Journal of Population, 19: 229-248.
Christen, P. (2012). Data Matching. Concepts and Techniques for Record Linkage, Entity Resolution, and Duplicate Detection. New York: Springer.
Darroch, J. N., Fienberg, S. E., Glonek, G. F. V. & Junker, B. W. (1993). "A Three-Sample Multiple-Recapture Approach to Census Population Estimation with Heterogeneous Catchability." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88: 1137-1148.
Fisher, B. S. & Cullen, F. T. (2000). "Measuring the sexual victimization of women: Evolution, current controversies and future research". In Criminal justice 2000: Measurement and analysis of crime and justice (pp. 317-390). Edited by David Duffee, David McDowall, Lorraine Green Mazerolle, and Stephen D. Mastrofski. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.
Herzog, T. N., Scheuren, F. J. & Winkler, W. E. (2007). Data Quality and Record Linkage Techniques. New York: Springer.
Hindelang, M. J., Hirschi, T. & Weis, J. G. (1981). Measuring delinquency. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
Hoover, A. (2013). "Multiple Systems Estimation: The Basics". Disponible en: https://hrdag.org/mse-the-basics/.
Hoover Green, A. (2011). "Repertoires of Violence Against Noncombatants: The Role of Armed Group Institutions and Ideologies." PhD dissertation, Department of Political Science, Yale University.
Johndrow, J., Lum, K. & Ball, P. (2014). dga: Capture- Recapture Estimation using Bayesian Model Averaging. R package version 1.2. https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__cran.r-2Dproject.org_web_packages_dga_index.html&d=AwIFaQ&c=-dg2m7zWuuDZ0MUcV7Sdqw&r=zktQJSPjgtanNSGpCCxY1M80dsoC6Sfq4XGj7M4Cai8&m=4v5Q8iO6IzGnVub-9zk30kU8JlhN62TNOQFxQvSblDI&s=lRZ0GyZIEcb9a-BFmEhYe7L1IrDNb5deSFylYnYqLXc&e=.
Lincoln, F. C. (1930). "Calculating Waterfowl Abundance on the Basis of Banding Returns." Circular 118: 1-4.
Lu, J. (2010). "Ranking bias in deep web size estimation using capture recapture method." Data & Knowledge Engineering, 69 (8): 866-879.
Lum, K., Price, M., Guberek, T. & Ball, P. (2010). "Measuring Elusive Populations with Bayesian Model Averaging for Multiple Systems Estimation: A Case Study on Lethal Violations in Casanare, 1998-2007." Statistics, Politics, and Policy, 1.
Lum, K., Price, M. E. & Banks, D. (2013). "Applications of Multiple Systems Estimation in Human Rights Research." The American Statistician, 67 (4): 191-200. (doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2013.821093).
Lum, K. & Ball, P. (2015). "Estimating Undocumented Homicides with Two Lists and List Dependence." HRDAG. Disponible en: https://hrdag.org/police-homicides-reconsideration.
Lynch, J. P. & Addington, L. A. (2007). Understanding crime statistics: Revisiting the divergence of the NCVS and UCR. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Lynch, J. P. & Jarvis, J. P. (2008). "Missing Data and Imputation in the Uniform Crime Reports and the Effects on National Estimates." Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 24: 69-85.
Madigan, D. & York, J. C. (1997). "Bayesian Methods for Estimation of the Size of a Closed Population." Biometrika, 84 (1): 19-31.
Manrique, D. & Fienberg, S. (2008). "Population Size Estimation Using Individual Level Mixture Models." Biometrical Journal, 50: 1051- 1063.
Marks, E. S., Seltzer, W. & Krotki, K. J. (1974). Population Growth Estimation: A Handbook of Vital Statistics Measurement. The Population Council.
Mitchell, S. A. (2014). "Capture-recapture Estimation for Conflict Data and Hierarchical Models for Program Impact Evaluation." PhD dissertation, Department of Statistics, Harvard University.
Morrison, W. D. (1897). "The Interpretation of Criminal Statistics." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 60: 1-32.
Mosher, C., Miethe, T. & Phillips, D. (2002). The Mismeasure of Crime. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Petersen, C. G. J. (1895). "The Yearly Immigration of Young Plaice Into the Limfjord from the German Sea." Report of the Danish Biological Station 6 (1896): 5-84.
Poggio, E. C., Kennedy, S. D., Chaiken, J. M. & Carlson, K. E. (1985). Blueprint for the future of the Uniform Crime Reporting Program: Final report of the UCR study. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice.
Rand, M., Cantor, D. & Lynch, J. P. (1997). Criminal victimization, 1973-95. Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics.
Rand, M. & Rennison, C. M. (2002). True crime stories? Accounting for differences in our national crime indicators. Chance, 15: 47-51.
Reed, M. (2015) "El misterio ronda el registro del homicidio". El Colombiano, disponible en: http://m.elcolombiano.com/article/221139.
Roth, F., Guberek, T. & Hoover, A. (2011). El uso de datos cuantitativos para entender la violencia sexual relacionada con el conflicto armado colombiano: retos y oportunidades. Bogotá: Corporación Punto de Vista y Benetech. Disponible en: https://hrdag.org/content/colombia/SV-report_2011-04-26.pdf (inglés) y http://www.cpvista.org/docs/CPV-Benetech-SV%20estudio-es-sept2011.pdf (español).
Seidman, D. & Couzens, M. (1974). "Getting the crime rate down: Political pressure and crime reporting". Law and Society Review, 8: 457- 493.
Seber, G. A. F. (1965). "A Note on the Multiple Recapture Census." Biometrika, 52: 249-259.
Sekar, C. C. & Deming, W. E. (1949). "On a Method of Estimating Birth and Death Rates and the Extent of Registration." Journal of the American Statistical Association, 245: 101- 115.
Silva, R. & Ball, P. (2007). "The Demography of Conflict- Related Mortality in Timor-Leste (1974- 1999): Empirical Quantitative Measurement of Civilian Killings, Disappearances & Famine- Related Deaths." In Statistical Methods for Human Rights. Ed. by J. Asher, D. Banks & F. Scheuren. New York: Springer.
Zauberman, R. & Névanen, D. (2009). "L'acteur et la mesure. Le comptage de la délinquance entre données administratives et enquêtes. Revue Française de Sociologie, 50: 31-62.
Zwierzchowski, J. & Tabeau, E. (2010). "The Global Costs of Conflict." Paper presented at the International Research Workshop, Berlin.
Publicado
Como Citar
Edição
Seção
Licença
Licencia creative commons CC BY NC ND https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/
