Análise dos furtos na Colômbia durante o ano 2017 mediante os modelos de regressão linear múltipla e a regressão ponderada geograficamente
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47741/17943108.66Palavras-chave:
fatores da criminalidade, furto, estatísticas criminais, medição da criminalidade, estatística, GWR, OLSResumo
Segundo informação proveniente do observatório do delito da Polícia Nacional da Colômbia, os furtos a pessoas e de celulares têm apresentado uma tendência de aumento desde o ano 2003 (Norza, Peñalosa y Rodríguez, 2017). Esta tendência motivou a realização do presente estudo para analisar a relação entre os fatores socioeconómicos e o furto em os diferentes municípios da Colômbia durante o ano 2017, mediante o uso de modelos de regressão linear múltipla e regressão geograficamente ponderada utilizando fontes de informação secundária segregada a nível municipal. Constatou-se que as variáveis matriculadas em instituições de ensino superior por cada mil pessoas, orçamento per capita atribuído pelo sistema geral de participações e a categoria do município explicam o 69,5% da variabilidade do logaritmo do furto a pessoas e de celulares em 532 municípios mediante um modelo de regressão linear múltipla estimado globalmente e o 50,16% utilizando o modelo de regressão ponderada geograficamente omitindo neste último a categoria do município. Neste modelo houve ligeiras variações nos coeficientes a nível municipal, o que reflete que a heterogeneidade social e económica tem efeitos nos indicadores de furto a nível nacional.
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